Covid-19 Project Publications- Presentation & Discussion 09/09/2021

Covid-19 Project Publications- Presentation & Discussion 09/09/2021

Covid-19 Project Publications

on 09/09/2021, Thursday 17:00 CET (Paris-Berlin-Rome) - 4:00 p.m. GMT (London)

We would like to invite you to an end-of-the-year roundtable discussion on the global Covid-19 pandemic. We will invite all the speakers of our Covid-19 initiative speaking this year for a final debate on the state of this crisis.

Title: Rule-Based Epidemiological Framework Modelling & Simulation - A Model Space In the Context of the COVID-19 Pandemic.

Abstract: This paper lies the foundation for a series of papers on mathematical modelling of the Covid-19 pandemic. Here we like to stress we do not have one specific model in mind, but a whole collection of models which can be transformed into each other, or represent different aspects of the pandemic. Each single model is based on a mathematical formulation we call rule-based systems. They have several advantages, for example they can be both interpreted stochastically and deterministically, without changing the model structure at all. Rule-based systems should be easier to communicate to non-specialists, when compared to differential equations. Due to their combinatorial nature, the rule-based model framework we propose is ideal for systematic mathematical modelling, systematic links to statistics, data analysis in general and machine learning. Most importantly, the framework can be used inside a Bayesian model selection algorithm, which can extend unsupervised machine learning technology to gain mechanistic insight through mathematical models. We first introduce the Bayesian model selection algorithm, give an introduction to rule-based systems, and then discuss models and precursor models, all consistent with our framework and relevant for the Covid-19 pandemic. We conclude the article with an in depth discussion of the role of mathematical modelling through the Covid-19 pandemic.

Zoom Participation

For participants who like to take part in the discussion on Thursday 09 Sept. 2021, use the Zoom URL


Meeting-ID: 843 1697 2876

Overview of all talks can be found at the Mathematical Modelling web pages.

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Tuesday, 29 November 2022