Talk: 'Modelling the deceleration of COVID-19 spreading' by Marco Baiesi - 11/03/2021
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Lecture on 11/03/2021, Thursday 18:00 CET (Paris-Berlin-Rome) - 5:00 p.m. GMT (London)
Title: Modelling the deceleration of COVID-19 spreading
Speaker: Marco Baiesi
Abstract: An analysis of COVID-19 data detects a deceleration of the epidemic in its early stages, often before a lockdown. Moreover, from the deceleration of the number of new cases we can also quantify the portion of population not involved in the lockdown, in different countries. Our analysis starts by characterising the time evolution of COVID-19 in term of its "velocity" (log of the new cases per day) and its rate of variation, or "acceleration" and continues by modifying a susceptible-hidden-infected-recovered (SHIR) model introduced in 2020 by Barnes. A partial hiding mechanism, for instance due to the impossibility for a fraction of the population to enter the hidden state, yields a simple model that can reproduce different deceleration trends. We also discuss other related simple models of COVID-19.
The COVID-19 Epidemiological Modelling Project presents a series of talks on the pandemic. Previous talks can be viewed again on YouTube:
This channel is also used for live streaming of the talks, for participants who do not like to take part in the discussion. For participants who like to take part in the discussion this Thursday, use the Zoom URL
Meeting-ID: 843 1697 2876
Overview of all talks can be found at the Mathematical Modelling web pages.