Models, Data & AI Workgroup-14/11/2021 -18:00 CET - 5p.m. UK Time.

Models, Data & AI Workgroup-14/11/2021 -18:00 CET - 5p.m. UK Time.

Further discussion on SINDy and alternative model reconstruction methods. Agenda: WelcomeDiscussion Model Selection &  Model Reconstruction from Data.Initial Paper Background: This is a workgroup meeting in the areas of mathematical modelling, data analysis, machine learning and artificial intelligence. Current activities: Parame...

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Models, Data & AI Workgroup-07/11/2021 -18:00 CET - 5p.m. UK Time.

Models, Data & AI Workgroup-07/11/2021 -18:00 CET - 5p.m. UK Time.

In this special session we focus the discussion to outline a first group publication process. We need also to discuss which kind of mathematical & other expertise, moreover computational resources are needed for the project to succeed. Agenda: WelcomeDiscussion Model Selection &  Model Reconstruction from Data....

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Models, Data & AI Workgroup-30/11/2021 -18:00 CET - 5p.m. UK Time.

Models, Data & AI Workgroup-30/11/2021 -18:00 CET - 5p.m. UK Time.

In this special session we focus the discussion to outline a first group publication process. We need also to discuss which kind of mathematical & other expertise, moreover computational resources are needed for the project to succeed. Agenda: WelcomeDiscussion SINDy and parameter estimation/model selectionInitial Paper Back...

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Reminder: End-Of-Year Covid-19 Covid-19 Round Table - 17/12/2020

Reminder: End-Of-Year Covid-19 Covid-19 Round Table - 17/12/2020

Round Table Discussion  The Present and the Future of the Covid-19 Pandemic on 17/12/2020, Thursday 17:00 CET (Paris-Berlin-Rome) - 4:00 p.m. GMT (London) We would like to invite you to an end-of-the-year roundtable discussion on the global Covid-19 pandemic. We will invite all the speakers of our Covid-19 initiative speaking this year fo...

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Seminar: Benny Moldovanu (University of Bonn) - From Matchings to Auctions

nobel

This is a special event for everybody who likes to understand some mathematical modelling background to this year's Nobel prize in economics.  Time: Tuesday 17 November 2020 11:00 - 12:00 (UK TIME) Speaker: Benny Moldovanu (University of Bonn) Title: From Matchings to Auctions Abstract: I very briefly survey some of the mathematical model...

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Programming & Simulation Meeting of the Covid-19 Project - 10/11/2020

Programming & Simulation Meeting of the Covid-19 Project - 10/11/2020

Agenda: WelcomePreparation for Thursday Management DiscussionNew 'epidemiology forum' under construction, latest developmentsCooperative Paper Writing, latest developmentsDiscussion on epidemiological models See also recent posts on this server. Background: This is a programming & simulation meeting of the Covid-19 project. Current activities: ...

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Reminder: Round Table Covid-19 Project 29/10/2020

Reminder: Round Table Covid-19 Project 29/10/2020

Round Table Discussion Topic: How successful are different lockdown strategies? For this, we will focus on the Great Barrington Declaration and the John Snow Memorandum. Our new format of round table discussions is for people interested in science, or scientists, that like to contribute to the understanding of the current Covid-19 pandemic in ...

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Jupyter notebook

I have uploaded a Jupyter simulation GillespieModelxSIRwr_ifb.ipynb for a reaction system included in Lisa document including information feedbacks SIRwr_info_feedback.model 

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Modelling.tex

I made a couple of corrections in the information feedback reactions in the model. 

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New Python and R scripts

Thanks to Lisa recap (modelling.tex) and after the discussion (some interesting Heike's comments) I  wrote a new toy model with our "Wises" and "Riskies" guys: giellespie4.py and Giellespie_epidem2.R (different names but same system and simulations). The new model is explicitly including social behaviour and the effects on risky and ...

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Python and R codes

I uploaded to the repository (simulations) two scripts one in Python and one in R which implement Gillespie algorithm on a simple toy model (SIR - like) that we discussed in the meeting on the 16 of May. 

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Gillespie's algorithms

I uploaded Gillespie's papers in which his algorithm is fully described. I also upload the pdf file of my presentation that now contains also an appendix in which explained the probability of each reaction in either the Gillespie setting and the "generalised case". Gillespie setting assumes reactions with exponentially distributed waiting time...

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COVID-19 Multi-Model Comparison Collaboration

https://decidehealth.world/CMCC 

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Enter the Ensemble Projection

Responding the the increasing proliferation of computational models aiming to predict the Covid-19 death toll in the US, researchers have applied an approach that has proved successful in predicting seasonal flu cases, by merging the different forecasts in a standardized way    https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/05/13/85503870...

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COVID-19 updates from Singapore

Dear all, Just want to share some online public events from the National University of Singapore (Kevin's alma mater) that discuss the global economic, social, and community impact of COVID-19. Hope this can be useful! 2 Navigating The New Normal: A Webinar Series by NUS Business School, National University of Singapore on Monday, May 11 2020 https...

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Lives vs Dollars - modeling the pros and cons of reopening the US economy

While reported infections from Covid-19 and deaths are plateauing is some US states, the damage to the economy is getting worse every day, so it's not surprising that the rationale for easing restrictions to business and personal freedoms is hotly debated. Models are emerging that try to support evidence-based decision making. Here's two examples. ...

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Dynamic Modeling Meets Machine Learning in Epidemiology

Dear all, We chanced upon a couple of very interesting papers about how dynamic modeling is transitioning to a (machine learning based) data-driven approach. This is also relevant for those who attend Prof Markus Kirkilionis' Heidelberg lecture on mathematical modeling! The first paper introduces Universal Differential Equation (UDE) that blen...

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Mutations key to understanding?

How understanding the main mutation lineages might help explain spread and issues with tests      https://www.cam.ac.uk/research/news/covid-19-genetic-network-analysis-provides-snapshot-of-pandemic-origins 

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New York Times

Cuomo Says 21 Percent of Those Tested in N.Y.C. Had Virus Antibodies: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/23/nyregion/coronavirus-new-york-update.html?referringSource=articleShare

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One World Probability Seminar

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Link to One World Probability Seminar Since the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic, the entire world has been forced to slow down. The scientific community has been no exception with cancellations of conferences, seminars and research visits. We are all forced to build up new communication channels, the One World Probability Seminar is an attempt...

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